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| Brett Anderson and Scott Sizemore February 28, 2010 |
| Live Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts, Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings, Player Trade Calculator, Fantasy Forums and more ! at FantasyBaseballXtreme.Com |
SP Brett Anderson, A's, - While fellow left-hander David Price received more publicity in 2009, it was Oakland's rookie Brett Anderson who ended up looking like the more accomplished rookie pitcher. Originally drafted in the 2nd round by the Arizona Diamondbacks, Anderson was traded to the A's in 2008, and had only 6 starts at the AA level before joining Oakland’s rotation in 2009. The 21-year old didn't disappoint, compiling 11 victories with 150 K's in 30 starts. Most encouraging was the rookie's ability to improve in the 2nd half of the season, lowering his ERA from 4.64 to 3.48, and his WHIP from 1.37 to 1.19 in the 2nd half. Anderson consistently throws strikes and his fastball is usually seen in the 92-93 MPH range. He also mixes in an effective 80 MPH slider about 30% of the time, and rounds out his arsenal with an excellent curve and solid changeup. Anderson generally pitches to contact, but still generated 7.7 K/9 while walking just 2.3 batters per 9 innings in 2009. |
2B Scott Sizemore,  Tigers, - Scott Sizemore was relatively quiet during his first three years in the minors, compiling a .289 average and only 11 HRs in 248 games over the 2006-2008 timeframe. In 2009, after reaching the Tigers AA affiliate at the age of 24, Sizemore turned his game up a notch, hitting .307 with 9 HRs in only 59 games. After his promotion to the AAA level, Sizemore continued his offensive surge hitting another 8 HRs while maintaining a .308 average through 71 games at Toledo. Along with his good average, and recent HR power, Sizemore also offers some speed on the base paths, notching 58 steals in 378 career minor league games. With Placido Polanco being shipped out of Detroit this past offseason, and only the light-hitting Ramon Santiago seemingly in his way, Scott Sizemore has an opportunity to capture significant playing time for the Tigers at 2nd base in 2010. You should be able to snag Sizemore past the 25th round in your fantasy draft as a solid sleeper pick. |
Player Spotlights By Junkyard Jake JunkyardJake.Com  |
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Player Spotlights - Brett Anderson and Scott Sizemore
Fantasy Football Roundtable - 2010 Dallas Cowboys Backfield
This week's question: Unscrambling the Dallas Cowboys backfield. Which Cowboys RB will present the most value at fantasy drafts this Fall? ...' |
This is a little bit of a trick question. I'm expecting Felix Jones to be drafted higher than Marion Barber III, who will be selected higher than Tashard Choice. Clearly I am expecting Felix Jones to be the most productive of the Cowboys' RBs. That isn't the question though.
The question is which one will present the most value. I actually think that honor belongs to Tashard Choice. Marion Barber will likely be the short yardage back. Choice will likely be the one to spell Jones when he needs a breather. I also think if Felix Jones were to get hurt, Choice would be the one to replace him as lead back.
Barber still has some name value, and the potential to score double-digit TDs, so I expect him to be the second Cowboy off the board. Since his role seems to most in question, I think he's the worst value of the three.
Felix Jones will be the first one off the board, but given the committee he's in, I don't see him standing out from the crowd of similar picks.
Choice, however, will be a late flier that could end up producing like an RB2. While I would rather have Felix Jones on my roster, I think Tashard Choice presents the best fantasy value of the three Cowboy RBs.
Dave of RotoPicks.Com says:
I’m confident that Marion Barber will not only be the best draft value in the Dallas backfield, but I think he’ll also be the most productive RB for the Cowboys at the end of the 2010 season.
Felix Jones’ stock has skyrocketed as a result of his post-season play and fantasy owners will pay a premium for him in 2010 drafts. Looking at the Cowboys postseason totals, Jones was clearly the better back, turning in over 200 yards rushing and 1 rushing TD on 30 carries and over 50 yards receiving on only 4 receptions. These numbers are pretty substantial compared to Barber’s 11 rushing attempts and zero receptions for a measly 18 total yards. Unfortunately, what you can’t see from these numbers is the context in which these figures were produced.
During their playoff run, Dallas faced the Eagles in the Wild Card round and the Vikings in the Divisional Series. These defenses were ranked 9th and 2nd, respectively, in rushing yards allowed during the regular season and made a living beating up on RBs that ran primarily between the tackles. In these situations, a shiftier Jones might have been the better play, but once the regular season rolls around I’m sure he will see a transition back to the change of pace role and situational return duty. Let’s not forget that Barber was the one who led all Cowboys RBs in rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing TDs, receptions, and receiving yards during the 2009 regular season.
Sure Jones might get a few more touches in 2010, but I’m not willing to pay a premium for the second best back in a committee system.
Derek of FantasyFootballManiaxs.Com says:
While the Cowboys’ quarterback situation is very stable, the Cowboys have three running backs that contributed at various points of the season. Marion Barber saw the most action with 214 carries for 932 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns, while adding 26 receptions for 221 yards. Felix Jones had 116 carries for 685 yards rushing and three touchdowns and also compiled 19 receptions for 119 yards. Finally, Tashard Choice added 64 carries for 349 yards and three touchdowns, along with 15 receptions for 132 yards.
That leaves fantasy owners in a bind this year. All three running backs showed potential last year. When healthy and on the field, each is worthy of being in a Fantasy Owner’s starting lineup. Which of the three has the best chance to put up the numbers that Owners look for in a Fantasy Football starting running back?
I think it is clear that Choice is not going to be the No. 1 option. He failed to earn more than five carries after Week Six in any game.
The bigger question is who should owners be drafting first, Barber or Jones?
Gerry Fraley and Todd Archer of the Dallas Morning News, as well as Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com Dallas, have reported this offseason that Jones will be the starter in the Dallas backfield and that injury concerns will lead to fewer carries for Barber. Furthermore, Jerry Jones has said that he would like to see Choice used more in the short passing game in 2010.
While Jerry Jones told the Dallas Morning News in January that money would not be a factor in Barber returning for the 2010 season, it does not take a fantasy football scientist to see that Barber’s carries are going to be even more limited in 2010. He is going to be the short yardage and change of pace back, with Jones receiving the bulk of the carries on first and second down and Choice being the wildcat and third down back, unless he is traded this offseason. Choice being out of the mix would help Barber’s value.
We currently have Felix Jones as the 16th-ranked fantasy running back. If he can stay healthy, we think it is reasonable to expect 1,100 yards to 1,200 yards and seven to nine touchdowns to go along with 30 to 40 receptions and 300 to 400 receiving yards, which could vault him into the vicinity of the top 10. He has good third round pick value; unfortunately, the fact that he plays for the Cowboys is going to make it hard to select him past the third round, and I can foresee drafts where he will be a second round pick. You hate to pick a player that high with an injury history that plays in a crowded backfield.
I think Barber is probably going to return to his 2006 numbers, when he had 135 carries for 694 yards. That year he had 16 touchdowns. I don’t expect those numbers to be as high in 2009; I think seven to nine touchdowns is more realistic. Barber is an excellent handcuff for Jones in case he is injured.
Please note the above was an excerpt from Derek's full article at FFManiax.
Jeff of DynastyKings.Com says:
The dreaded three-headed committee reappears in yet another franchise. The Dallas Cowboys were all set with Marion Barber III last season as their workhorse and they had planned on using Felix Jones as their complimentary back. Both guys have great skill sets but it is pretty clear as to which one is better on short yardage and between the tackles (Barber). Jones is a fierce player once he gets to the second level, making him a perfect candidate for plays designed to go wide or even on some screen passes. Both have significant downside – Barber is showing some signs of slowing down and Jones is not built to take a feature back workload.
Right now, Felix Jones is a very sexy pick. In four Winter Survivor Leagues that have been going since the end of January, Jones is going in the RB21-24 range, projecting him to be a fourth or fifth round selection in 2010 redrafts. Barber isn’t much lower, going in the RB27-33 range, which means this is viewed both as a RBBC and a toss-up. For me, Barber could be recouping from an undisclosed injury and Jones has not proven himself to be capable of holding up for a full season. Both backs represent decent value and it depends on Jones’ upside versus Barber’s return to previous performance levels.
The big wildcard? Tashard Choice. Personally I think he’s the best “value” pick in terms of what he will cost you as opposed to what his performance level could be in 2010. If Barber is hurt, I still believe that Jones will not be the workhorse for Dallas. Choice, not Jones, fits the style of Barber and is the closest thing to a drop-in replacement in that offense. Choice has also run the Cowboys’ version of the Wildcat and is a solid pass protection back (often used on third downs and passing plays out of the shotgun formation). While other fantasy owners will be rolling dice on Jones or Barber and hoping that they hit with their selection – I prefer a different value Choice. Choice will be dirt cheap in 2010 as the third man on the depth chart but his upside is huge, and neither back ahead of him has proven to be very durable.
Matt of RapidDraft.Com says:
This is a wide open question with answers that can vary depending on interpretation, but I’ll try to answer as straightforwardly as possible:
Marion Barber will lead the group in touchdowns and drive you crazy with the injury reports. Felix Jones will improve significantly on his first two seasons, produce the most yardage and probably miss a couple of games. Tashard Choice will continue to make fantasy owners wish he played for a different team, unless one of the other two suffers a significant injury.
Barber has been at his most consistently productive when spelled by another back. His breakout 16-touchdown 2006 came with just 135 carries (and 158 total touches) to Julius Jones’ 267. Barber’s next most productive year came in 2007, with just a 55 percent share of the carries that went to him and Jones.
In 2008, a Thanksgiving Day toe injury made it tough to know how Barber would have held up down the stretch, but there’s no denying that he wore down late in 2009. After averaging 4.6 yards a carry through the first 10 contests (missing one), he went for just 3.5 per rush in the final five games – including pedestrian outings against lackluster run defenses such as San Diego and New Orleans. That precipitated a mere 11 carries and 18 yards in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, a new Jones was finally getting a larger share of the load and looking good while doing it. The 5.9 yards per carry is no illusion, as even when Jones picks up 5 or 6 yards, he looks like he’s a step or two from breaking a long one. He’ll probably top out in the 12-15 carry a game range to keep from burning out, but Jones’ 30 rushes in the two playoff games were twice as many as either of his backfield mates.
Should he average just 12 attempts per game, Jones would need just 5.2 yards a rush to reach 1,000 for the season. He doesn’t look like he’ll become a prime receiving option soon, but Jones should be able to reach six or seven touchdowns along the way. I’d take him ahead of Barber at this point.
Finally, there’s Choice, who could well be the most consistent producer of the group if he got the chance. You could make an argument for him as the top value, considering Choice will go much later than the other two (seven rounds later, in Round 13, according to very early Fantasy Football Calculator numbers). He’ll be a very risky fantasy play, however, unless injury befalls Jones or Barber.
Russ of FantasyFootballStarters.Com says:
Few backfields in the NFL pose the type of problem for fantasy football owners in 2010 than the one in Dallas. All of us could spend a lot of time dissecting this situation as it really isn't nearly as cut and dried as some want to think. There's Felix Jones, Marion Barber, and Tashard Choice. All the current signs point to the Cowboys getting Jones more involved in the offense in 2010. There's no doubting that his speed and playmaking abilities make him the most dynamic threat in their backfield, but questions still surround how well he'll fare if called on to regularly carry the ball 15+ times per game. While everyone is down on Barber at the present time because of his struggles in the post-season and the way Jones ran in their 2 playoff games, it needs to be remembered that Barber suffered a knee injury before the playoffs and in the last 3 games of the regular season Barber rushed 48 times for 216 yards and 3 touchdowns compared to Jones's 39 rushes for 207 yards and 1 touchdown. Jones had the better yards per carry average (5.3), but Barber's (4.5) wasn't bad either. Both RB's have had their struggled the last 2 seasons with injuries and it looks like a committee between them is forthcoming in 2010 again. I would expect that Jones would be the primary getting 13-15 carries per game with Barber the secondary getting 10-15, but it's still too early to tell. Choice is the interesting odd man out, as he has demonstrated excellent rushing skills when called upon and there is speculation that he could supplant Barber as the secondary RB to Jones in 2010. But I tend to think that is more of a motivational tactic to get Barber fired up than anything else. Not saying Choice can't do it, but I just think it unlikely.
Bottom line is that any of them could end up being the top fantasy Cowboys RB in 2010 making each of them risky propositions in fantasy football drafts. In our own expert's fantasy football mock draft Jones went 53rd overall as the 21st RB taken while Barber went 80th overall as the 34th RB off the board. Choice went in the 16th and final round. Barber went a little later than where I expect he'll go come around August but currently he's getting the least favorable press of the group. We'll see if that continues once we get into OTA's and training camp.
My 2010 fantasy football projection here is that barring an injury, I expect Jones will have around 224 carries for 1,030 yards with about 36 receptions for another 234 yards and a combined 6-8 touchdowns. Barber will have around 208 carries for 853 yards with about 32 receptions for 208 yards and scored 7-9 touchdowns. Jones has the higher ceiling for big statistical numbers, but it's probable that both RB's are going to cut into each other enough to the point where neither is a reliable every week play. Sounds like a lot of today's NFL backfields.
Jim of FanaticFantasyFootball.Com says:
Felix Jones saw his numbers go up but after his 2008 year that would be expected. Jones only had four games during the 09 season in which he received double digit carries and all four games came in the last eight weeks of the season giving rise to the hope he might put his injuries behind him and produce like a #1 or #2 back...For the rest of Jim's breakdown of the 'Boys backfield, please see his article posted at Fantasy Fantasy Football.
Personally this is a running back situation I prefer not to get involved in if at all possible. If I draft any of them it’s for running back depth and I don’t jump on any of them too early.
Marion Barber has received the most work over the last two years. His numbers have remained pretty constant since 2007, averaging 213 carries for around 900 yards and 8 touchdowns rushing per year. The part of Barbers game that has been affected the most is his targets and receptions. In 2007 he had 44 receptions for 282 yards and 2 TDs. He followed that up with 52 receptions, 417 yards and 2 TDs in 2008. During the 2009 season he was only targeted 32 times. Of those targets he caught 25 for 207 yards and zero TDs. Did the presence of Felix Jones and/or Tashard Choice cut into Barbers numbers out of the backfield?
I don’t think so. Choice saw his numbers drop in all phases of his game except one. His rushing opportunities dropped from 92 to 64 (-28), rush yards down from 472 to 349 (-123), receptions 21 to 15 (-6), receiving yards 185 down to 132 (-53), and zero receiving TDs in both 08 and 09.
Jake of JunkYardJake.Com says:
The Cowboys certainly have one of the more enviable running back situations in the NFL. Not many teams can boast three talented options at the position, and it's fairly clear that Marion Barber, Felix Jones or Tashard Choice can all be productive in a starting role. Barring a coaching change, or a trade, Dallas's RB rotation might very well stay consistent with the trend we have observed over the past two years. In this scenario, Marion Barber would assume early down carries, with Felix Jones providing an added speed dimension on 3rd downs. Tashard Choice's role would once again expand in the absence of either Barber or Jones due to injury.
In the event of a trade, the situation of course changes completely. There has been speculation that one of the three running backs could be traded this offseason. The most likely candidate is said to be Marion Barber. This makes sense from the perspective that he has the most mileage on him and commands the highest salary among Dallas's current RB trio. Choice, only one year younger than Barber, has also been mentioned in possible trades. Felix Jones, the youngest of the three players and turning 24 this season, probably has the best chance of staying in Dallas.
If Barber changes his address due to a trade, this will probably elevate Tashard Choice to 1st and 2nd down action. Choice is quite similar to Barber in terms of inside running ability and power. Choice is slightly smaller, but also has a nominal speed advantage over Barber. Moreover, despite the fact that Choice wasn't known as much of a receiver when he was drafted in the 4th round of the 2008 draft, he has proven himself to be competent in this regard. In 2009, Choice caught 15 passes for 132 yards and his 8.8 yards per catch was almost identical to the yards per catch produced by Barber, who had 26 catches for 221 yards (8.5 yards per catch).
Rick of FantasyFootballTrader.com says:
As usual, once we get down to me, you're already well versed in all of the numbers. I again tip the hat to the saavy crowd of analysts assembled above, as Tashard Choice (the forgotten man) was a popular selection. Remember - "value" was the key word in this discussion and Choice simply doesn't have to do much at all to offer awesome value among the late reaches of your 16 round draft.
But I'm going to take a chance and bet on the fact that Felix Jones has arrived for good. F.F.T. readers all know Felix has been a pet project of mine since entering the NFL. I've always been one of the few who said he'd have a better pro career than Arkansas running mate Darren McFadden and I'm sticking by it. Every time I watch a healthy Felix run he seems to outshine Barber and Choice (both of whom, I agree, have their place in this offense).
But Felix is a "breath holder". Whenever he touches the ball the opposing fan base forgets to breath until he goes down. Those guys always get featured sooner or later, height, weight and any other measurable be damned.
You want Felix at almost any point in the mid-third round. He and Shonn Greene are this year's Ray Rice.
Enjoy this article? Check out FantasyTrader.Com's Offseason Roundtable Archives.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Player Spotlights - Stephen Strasburg and Gordon Beckham
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| Stephen Strasburg and Gordon Beckham February 23, 2010 |
| Live Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts, Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings, Player Trade Calculator, Fantasy Forums and more ! at FantasyBaseballXtreme.Com |
SP Stephen Strasburg, Nationals, - One of the most anticipated pitching prospects to come along in recent memory, Stephen Strasburg certainly appears to have the talent to match the accolades that have been showered on him since the Washington Nationals made him the #1 pick in the 2009 amateur draft. Anyway you chose to look at his pitching performance at San Diego State, the numbers are gaudy. Last season, he went 13-1 with an ERA of 1.32, striking out 195 batters in 109 innings. His career WHIP in college ball is just under .80, and he once struck-out 23 batters in a single game. His fastball has been clocked as high as an obscene 103 MPH, and he consistently throws in the high-90's with superb control and good location. Strasburg complements his heater with a hybrid curve/slider breaking pitch that typically freezes hitters, and his recent development of a change-up makes his arsenal even more imposing. For fantasy purposes, Strasburg is well worth a pick in his current 20th round ADP. |
2B/SS/3B Gordon Beckham,  White Sox, - A standout college middle infielder at the University of Georgia, Gordan Beckham was selected by White Sox in with the 8th pick in the 2008 amateur entry draft. This was also the year that scouts really began taking notice of Beckham, when he ultimately ended up leading the SEC in hits, slugging percentage and homeruns (28). The stocky SS also finished 2nd in the league with a .411 average that year, while displaying some skills on the basepaths with 17 swipes . During his brief stay in the minors, Beckham didn't show much power or speed, but made enough contact to generate a .322 BA in 59 games. Called up in June last year, Beckham started off slow, but ended up batting .270 with strong power/speed numbers that translate into 22 HRs/11 SBs over 162 games. Beckham's 8th round ADP in early baseball drafts seems a bit high, but if he qualifies at 2B/SS this could be a fair price to pay for a middle infielder with 20 HR potential. |
| Player Spotlights By Junkyard Jake JunkyardJake.Com |
Fantasy Football Roundtable - Jermichael Finley
This week's question:'TE Jermichael Finley notched 70+ yards in four of the last five and scored four of his five touchdowns over that span as well. Fact or fiction for 2010?...' |
Absolute fact. The only thing that will hold him back is injury. He's a huge target (6'5", 247) with great speed and athleticism. His body is very fluid as he's able to make adjustments to the ball. He also possesses soft hands.
He'll be just 23 next year and he's already formed a great rapport with Aaron Rodgers, who's easily one of the top tier fantasy QBs. The ageless wonder Donald Driver has to slow down at some point, which should open up even more opportunities for Finley.
He was a beast down the stretch and Arizona could not check him in the playoff shootout. I currently have him as my 5th ranked fantasy TE, and I think he actually may move up the more I process his explosiveness.
Dave of RotoPicks.Com says:
Fact. After seeing how productive Jermichael Finley was in only his second season in the league, I have no reservations about pegging him as a top 10 TE come 2010. It wouldn’t even surprise me if he finished the 2010 season as a top 5 fantasy TE in both PPR and non-PPR formats.
At first glance Finley appears to have turned in a respectable 2009 season, earning him a place at the tail end of the top 10 TE rankings for 2010 drafts. After all, his rankings among tight ends were right around the top 10 in receptions (12th with 55 receptions), yards receiving (10th with 676 yards), and receiving touchdowns (T-12th with 5 touchdowns).
While setting up your 2010 cheat sheets, don’t make the mistake of looking at Finley’s overall stats from 2009. You also need to consider the fact that he missed almost 4 complete games last year. (And no, I’m not making an error and including the Packers week 3 routing of the Rams where he went without a reception.)
I’m not a huge fan of extrapolating statistics, but if you did extend Finley’s production out over a full 16 game season he would have put up top 5 tight end numbers and finished the season with about 70 receptions for 900 yards and 7 touchdowns. In my opinion, he should be the 6th or 7th TE taken in 2010 drafts and consider him a steal if you land him at any point after that.
Russ of FantasyFootballStarters.Com says:
Fact. From week 11 through the end of the regular season, only Greg Jennings had more passes thrown his way than Finley (56-50). And no one had more receptions in that span than Finley's 40. A knee injury sidelined him for three games but once he came back week 11, he was as good as any tight end in the game. Not including his six catches for 159 yards in the Packers playoff loss to Arizona, his 416 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns the last seven regular season games of 2009 would prorate out to 91 catches for 951 yards and seven touchdowns.
Finley will be the Packers starter over Donald Lee in 2010 and while the Packers boast one of the best WR corps in the NFL, Finley will still get a lot of targets and solid numbers. His size and speed make him a mismatch for LB's and safeties and there's an excellent chance Finley will be one of the top 5 fantasy tight ends in 2010. Once the more popular names like Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten are off the board by the end of the 5th round in this year’s draft, Finley in rounds 7-10 will prove to be a steal.
Jim of FFWhiz.Com says:
The cat is out of the bag on Jermichael Finley. The scary thing is he is only 22 and has nowhere to go but up. As he continues to learn how to read defenses and how to work into open zones his numbers should only continue to grow, especially considering he is partnered with one of the best young signal callers in the game; Aaron Rodgers. As the season progressed it was obvious that he developed a very good chemistry with Rodgers and should only continue to improve.
Finley is a very solid route runner with exceptional hands as he showed in the NFC Wild Card game against Arizona. In that game he was consistently double-teamed and still managed six receptions for 159 yards.
If there is one place that Finley will need to improve on, it’s his blocking. Until he can be counted on as a blocker he will only see the field on passing downs, but if he can improve in this area it will only open up more possibilities for him going forward and allow him to become one of the best in the game.
As I said in the beginning, the cat is definitely out of the bag and already I have seen that he is usually among the top 5 tight ends taken off the board in early mock drafts and may even rise with a solid off season. If you want him on your fantasy team do not sleep on him come draft time because Finley is a sleeper no longer.
Matt of RapidDraft.Com says:
Jermichael Finley is most certainly for real, and not just because I’m a big fan of attaching random letters to repurpose common first names.
Let’s start with the obvious: At 6-foot-5 and 247 pounds, his combination of size, downfield speed and athleticism makes Finley the kind of matchup nightmare that everyone but Mike Martz dreams about lining up at tight end. At just 22 years old (and after having left college a year early), Finley is still growing as a player and learning.
Of course, that’s not to discount what he already accomplished last year. Things got off to a relatively slow start before he missed three games with a left knee sprain. Upon his return, however, Finley immediately stepped in as a central figure in the Green Bay passing game. From Week 11 on, he was the second-most targeted Packer receiver – trailing Greg Jennings by just two – and caught eight more passes than anyone else on the team. The fact that Finley only led the team in targets in a game three times all season further shows the consistency with which he got looks from Aaron Rodgers.
Over that same seven-week stretch, six tight ends around the league were targeted more than Finley, but only Jason Witten (45) and Tony Gonzalez (39) collected more catches than his 38. That’s an average of a little more than five receptions a game, a rate that would produce about 87 over a full season. Only Witten and Dallas Clark topped that total at tight end in 2009. (And no one approached my aptitude for alliteration.)
In the Packers’ playoff loss, Jerm (we’re tight) turned all six of his catches into first downs and took three for more than 20 yards. That’s just one game but an important one that at least offers a glimpse at his value to his quarterback and big-play potential.
The one thing that might limit him in non-PPR formats is Green Bay’s ability to spread the ball around in the passing game. Five different Packers fell in the range of four to six touchdown catches last season. Whereas Donald Driver is nearing the end (and watched his opportunities decrease as Finley emerged), James Jones and Jordy Nelson are young guys heading in the opposite direction. Still, Finley came up with five scores last year – including four in the final five games – and Donald Lee found the end zone five times as the primary tight end in 2008. It shouldn’t take much for Finley to settle into the seven-touchdown area (with clear upside beyond that) over a full season, and we can’t ask much more than that from a fantasy tight end.
Finally, the Packers can and will throw. In Rodgers’ two seasons, they’ve tied for ninth and 10th in the league in pass attempts. That better-than-average rate was actually down from the first and sixth rankings of coach Mike McCarthy’s first two seasons.
Roll it all together, and Jermichael Finley should be pushing for top five at tight end for 2010.
Jim of FanaticFantasyFootball.Com says:
As is the case with most rookies, Jermichael Finley’s 2008 season was uneventful by NFL and fantasy football standards. During the 2008 season he was active on special teams, targeted with nine passes, caught 4 balls for 45 yards, and had no touchdowns.
During 2009, in only thirteen games, Finley had 51 receptions for 642 yards (12.3 yds. per catch) and 4 touchdowns. He missed three weeks 8-10 due to injuries. During the last six weeks Jermichael was targeted 45 times for 7.5 per game, while soon to be 30 year old, Donald Lee was looked to only 15 times. Spencer Havner got some playing time during Finley’s three week absence. Havner was targeted 10 times, caught 7 for 23 yards, and scored 4 touchdowns. Those stats will go to Finley this year.
Finley finished 2009 among the top 10 tight ends in fantasy football and #12 in the NFL. We expect another top 10 finish in 2010. Aaron Rodgers is confident in Finley’s ability to get open and hang onto the ball. He has good hands and is a threat to break a long run for a touchdown. The potential is there for Finley to be targeted 90-100 times with 70-75 receptions, but the Packers spread the ball as well as any team - 80-90 targets and 65-70 receptions are more realistic.
Donald Driver turned 35 years old February 2 and his production has dipped a little each year since 2006. We look for Driver and Finley to have almost equal numbers in 2010. Driver’s stats will dip a little more as Finley receives more targets from Aaron Rodgers. The Packers play only six games against playoff teams from 2009 in 2010. Two of those games are against their division rival Minnesota Vikings #20 ranked pass defense. Green Bay will play eight games against teams ranking among the top 16 in pass defense, and 8 games versus teams ranking among the 16 worst pass defenses, including division rival Detroit Lions twice.
Our line on Finley for 2010 looks like this: 95 targets, 69 receptions, 840 yards, and 7-9 touchdowns. That would place him in a group with #4 Vernon Davis, #5 Brent Celek, #6 Tony Gonzalez, and #7 Kellen Winslow.
Derek of FantasyFootballManiaxs.Com says:
A new star may have been born in 2009 at the tight end position. Green Bay Packers TE Jermichael Finley had quite a finish to the season; in his final seven games, he had 38 receptions for 416 yards and four touchdowns. He then took it up another gear and dominated the wild card round against the Arizona Cardinals, notching six receptions for 159 yards and no touchdowns. Those 159 yards were the second most by a tight end in NFL playoff history, trailing only San Diego Chargers Hall of Fame TE Kellen Winslow, who posted 166 yards in a 1981 Divisional Round victory over the Miami Dolphins. With company like that many fantasy owners are salivating at the possibilities for 2010.
Teams have to respect Grant’s ability to run the ball and they have to respect Jennings ability to stretch the field and Driver’s ability to be a clutch possession receiver. The Packers also have depth in the slot positions with fourth-year receiver James Jones and third -year receiver Jordy Nelson. There are only 11 defenders on the field and there are just not enough of them to devote more than one defender to Finley. At 6-4 and 240 lbs, Finley is big and physical, but can also stretch the field with his speed. It is tough to cover him with a linebacker because of his speed, but it is difficult to cover him with a safety, because of his size. Factor in the talent around him and it is a nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators.
The disadvantage is that it is easy for the Packers to forget to give him the ball. Against a Detroit Lions team that ranked 30th against the tight end, he logged only three catches for 25 yards and no touchdowns in a Thanksgiving Day clash. Rodgers threw for 348 yards and three touchdowns and the Packers put up 34 points. They do not always need Finley to move the ball. That is a stark contrast to guys like Dallas Cowboys Jason Witten, San Francisco 49ers Vernon Davis or San Diego Chargers Antonio Gates.
The other concern with Finley is injuries. He did not play much in 2008 due to a poor attitude and poor conditioning. He really turned that around in 2009 and showed a lot more maturity and toughness. He went from being the team’s No. 2 tight end at the beginning of the season to a player that started 10 games. I do not worry about his attitude regressing, but the problem is that he missed three games with a knee injury that he suffered early in the Cleveland game and missed four starts overall. As fantasy owners, we all know about the perpetually injured paper superstars.
I think Finley is going to notch between 750 to 850 yards and six to eight touchdowns in 2010, which is comparable to what Tony Gonzalez did in 2009. He is going to make owners happy, but it also means that Finley should be going in the sixth to eighth round. It makes a lot of sense to take him later and use your early picks to stockpile running backs and receivers. Inexperienced owners will take bigger name tight ends in that spot, giving owners who did their homework a bargain.
Jake of JunkYardJake.Com says:
Jermichael Finley was indeed a significant breakout player in 2009, and I am inclined to believe his emergence is not a mirage. He put the exclamation point on his already commendable 2009 season by setting a Packers playoff record with 6 catches for 159 yards in Green Bay’s playoff loss to Minnesota in the Wild Card round.
The 6-5 240 tight end left Texas after only two years, but many scouts projected that he could have very well been a 1st rounder with one more college season of experience. Finley entered Texas as a wide receiver out of High School in 2005. At the time, he weighed only about 215, and Finley's high school coach compared him to recent Texas 1st round pick Roy Williams in terms of size and speed. Early on, Finley showed his versatility, and athleticism by lining up wide, or inside as a TE, or even as an H-Back.
Although he has always shown a good commitment to weight-training and conditioning, probably the one area where Finley didn't spend enough time is in the area of film preparation and the general mental aspect of the game. It is said that he dedicated himself to becoming a more intelligent player this year, and this could help explain his breakout performance.
Entering his 3rd year, and still just 23 years old, it's hard not to like the potential upside of Jermichael Finley. Arguably, with his natural athletic ability, great hands and rare speed for the position, the only person who can limit the potential of Finley, is Finley himself. He will probably cost you a 7th-8th round pick in 2010 fantasy drafts, but he's worth the price in my opinion.
Jeff of DynastyKings.Com says:
Finley looks to have the talent level that could make him the next Antonio Gates - and that's not much of an exaggeration. As Finley wrapped up his second season in the NFL, the former Texas Longhorn had 59 targets since Week 10, topped only by Greg Jennings for the team lead. QB Aaron Rodgers just loves Finley's ability to offer a big target with soft hands and great leaping ability, especially on third downs and goal line chances.
The downside risks to Finley do exist - Green Bay put up a gaudy amount of points (461, 3rd in NFL) and Aaron Rodgers was one of only seven quarterbacks that attempted over 540 passes last season, so if Green Bay adds a bit more of balance it could mean a little less action for the receivers and tight ends. Finley also shares the workload for the Packers. Donald Lee is the better blocking tight end and he does see the field nearly as much as Finley. Over the same period (Weeks 11-17 and the Wild Card game), Lee lined up on offense 336 times while Finley had just 20 more snaps. Until Finley gets on the field 80% or more of the time, his upside will have some limitations. Another issue with grabbing him next year is that Finley snared 77.5% of his targets, tied for tops in the league with Heath Miller in that category. Odds are that a similar or better rate is not likely next year.
Overall in 2010, Finley gives good upside but I cannot see him in the Top 5 TEs for next season so long as Dallas Clark, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez all remain healthy - not to mention guys like Brent Celek, Vernon Davis and Kellen Winslow. The tight end position is a deep one for next year, so I would not overpay for a third year tight end who has yet to prove that he can produce big numbers over a 16-game period. Let someone else draft him too early.
Admittedly, I get to cheat a bit here, having already profiled Finley in our Daily Trader Team Takes. My thoughts on Finley most closely mirror that of the FF Whiz’ above. The biggest problem I’m having is, let’s be honest, he’s no sleeper. Hell, ten out of ten experts in this article alone see Finley coming from a mile away. If you enter your draft with thoughts of wryly snagging this cat in the ninth round, you’re exiting your draft with John Carlson. (Not sayin’ that’s a bad thing – but it is what it is).
My assessment of Finley remains the same as last week where I said, "Every year there seems to be a few players per position whose upside is so glaringly obvious that their average draft position puts them in risky territory. At TE, Finley will be one of those names this year. Mark my words, he'll be a chic TE sleeper by all of the mags this summer. If you want him you're gonna have to take him as the 4th-5th TE off of the board." That said, you won't see me betting against him making good on that draft position.
Enjoy this article? Check out FantasyTrader.Com's Offseason Roundtable Archives.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Player Spotlights - Wade Davis and Jason Heyward
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| Wade Davis and Jason Heyward February 15, 2010 |
| Live Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts, Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings, Player Trade Calculator, Fantasy Forums and more ! at FantasyBaseballXtreme.Com |
SP Wade Davis, Rays, Wade Davis isn’t the type of pitcher who overwhelms you with his stuff, but he was an effective pitcher at the minor league level, and he continued to impress when he got the call for a major league audition in September last year. In fact when you compare his minor league numbers compiled over 6 seasons (3.28 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9, 8.7 K/9) to his composite stats over his six major league starts in late 2009 (3.72 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, 8.9 K/9), they are remarkably similar. Especially encouraging was Davis’s ability to sustain his minor league trend of avoiding the longball. In 36 innings with the Rays he gave up only two HRs, and 14% of the flyballs hit off the 24 year-old righty turned into harmless infield outs. Davis primarily throws a 92 MPH fastball, but perhaps his best pitch is his 75 MPH, big-breaking curveball. The rookie makes an excellent fantasy pitcher to add in the late rounds of your mixed league draft. |
OF Jason Heyward,  Braves, - Jason Heyward entered the Braves farm system at the precocious age of 17, advancing rapidly to a limited AAA level audition at the age of 19 in 2009. Considered by many scouts to represent the best pure hitting prospect in the 2010 prospective big-league class, Heyward will be given a fair chance by the Braves to win the right-field job out of Spring Training. Judging from his minor league career, the left-side hitting Heyward has demonstrated an uncanny ability to hit almost equally well against both left and left-handed pitching. Through last year, Heyward had a .318 minor league average, while showing the type of power and speed that projects him as a possible 20HR/20SB player once he reaches the majors. More reasons for optimism concerning Heyward 1) his strong work ethic, and 2) the fact that he is an exceptional fielder with a strong arm. In early drafts, the aspiring right-fielder is going in the 24th round, but that will no doubt change if he gets the call on Opening Day. |
| Player Spotlights By Junkyard Jake JunkyardJake.Com |
Fantasy Football Roundtable - Jamaal Charles
This week's question:' If one were to prorate Jamaal Charles' final eight games of 2009 to a full season, he'd handily outscore Adrian Peterson and betters all RB's not named Chris Johnson in P.P.R. formats. What are your expectations for Charles in 2010?' |
Every year we see a couple of guys who become the unlikely heroes to a fantasy owner's season. One of the biggest surprises was Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles. While Charles has great speed and playmaking ability, his lack of size (5'11", 199 lbs) has me pessimistic he'd hold up as a feature RB for an entire season.
He had 20 carries or more in each of the last 4 games of 2009, but in the first eight games, he never had more than six carries in any week. His legs were fresh the second half of the season. And it needs to be remembered that he only got his chance because of the combination of the Larry Johnson debacle and a slew of injuries at the RB position for the Chiefs. Charles was in the doghouse the first half of the season with a fumbling problem and he'll need to prove he can hold onto the ball or he could fall out of favor again.
I also think it's likely the Chiefs will look to add a bigger RB thru free agency or the draft to compliment Charles, or maybe even compete with him for the starting job. While I like Charles, he is most likely going to need someone else to take some of the burden off of him to hold up for a full 16 games. He'd best be served as the "lightning" in a "thunder and lightning" type of RB rotation in 2010. I expect he'll average around 15 carries per game and for the season have between 1,100-1,200 yards and score 8-10 touchdowns.
Ryan of LestersLegends.Com says:
I began calling him Chris Johnson-lite at the end of the year because of his ability to rip off a long run or two seemingly every game. He posted a phenomenal 5.9 yards per carry, and had 1,131 total yards with eight touchdowns in the last eight weeks. That's 141.4 yards and a score per game for half a year.
His beastly numbers impressed me enough to have him as my 11th rated RB heading into next year. While I can't dismiss his numbers, I do get that Steve Slaton-type vibe from Charles. I just don't know if there's an encore.
Kansas City has just about nothing going for them on offense outside of Charles. My guess is he'll face a lot more eight and nine man fronts. Teams will dare the Chiefs to beat them with the run. I don't know that he can stand up to that sort of defensive pressure.Jamaal Charles is the type of player that I will most likely not own in 2010. I can't imagine a league with an owner that doesn't hold him in higher regard than I, and I'm okay with that.
Jim of FanaticFantasyFootball.Com says:
The 2009 fantasy football season kicked off with Jamaal Charles still in the free-agent pool in many leagues. He didn't do much the first eight games to make anyone want him on their roster (rush 23 for 116 yd. / 5.0 avg. / 0 touchdowns). To that point, the Chiefs held him to single digit carries. He got a few receptions out of the back field but it wasn't enough to get anyone's attention. Things changed dramatically beginning in week 10.
Larry Johnson had been booted out of town and Jamaal Charles laid claim to the running back position. In his last seven weeks, he received no less than 14 carries per game (total of 142 in 7 games). He rumbled for 745 yards and five rushing touchdowns. He added to those totals, 32 receptions (4.57 avg./gm) out of 55 targets (7.85 avg./gm), 155 receiving yards (22.1 avg./gm), and 1 receiving score. If he had played 16 games at that pace, he would have racked up some very impressive totals through 16 fantasy football weeks. See below:
RESULTS FOR 16 GAMES:
Rush: 19.4 per game, total = 310.4
Rush Yards: 101.3 per game, total = 1620.8
Rush TDs: .71 per game,total = 11.36
Receiving Targets: 4.6 per game, total = 73.6
Receptions: 3.14 per game, total = 50.24
Receiving Yards: 22.14 per game, total = 354.24
Receiving TDs: .14 TDs rec. per game, total = 2.24
All Purpose: touches (rush / rec.) 360.28, 1975.04 total yards, 13.6 touchdowns
Fanatic Fantasy Football uses a scoring system that awards points per reception and awards bonus points, (1, 1.5, 2), for length of touchdown. So this is how we project Jamaal Charles for the 2010 season as we fully expect him to be “The Man” in KC.
Since Jamaal was used sparingly in the first nine games of the 09 season, he was pretty fresh going up against some tired defenses in the last seven weeks. We don't think he'll post the kind of numbers we projected for 2009 had he played all sixteen weeks. We do expect him to have a good year in 2010 though and wouldn't mind having him on our own roster.
We look for Jamaal to carry the ball around 300 times and add 50 receptions giving him about 350 touches for the year. If he stays healthy, we expect him to post about eight 100+ yard games and eight games between 50 and 80 yards giving him around 1,300 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns in 16 weeks. He should be able to catch another 50 balls and score a couple of touchdowns through the air, bringing his total scores to 13 for the year.
We expect Charles to put up around 300-330 fantasy points. That would place him among the top 6 running backs with the likes of Steven Jackson (STL) and Frank Gore (SFO). We'll have to wait and see how the new Offensive Coordinator, Charlie Weis, plays his cards this year.
Note: This is a synopsis of Jim's full profile of Jamaal Charles here.
Jake of JunkYardJake.Com says:
From a talent perspective, it's hard to argue that Jamaal Charles will not be a significant fantasy factor in 2010. He is an instinctive runner with 4.4 speed. He shows great acceleration, terrific agility and has clearly demonstrated an ability to make an impact as a receiver. Charles of course proceeded to tear it up down the stretch last year, averaging six yards per carry, 138 rush yards per game, and scoring seven times in the period of week 10-17.
Judging from very early projections, Charles fantasy value has skyrocketed as a consequence of his late year numbers. In fact, you may need to spend an 1st-2nd round pick to snag him in fantasy drafts next year. Charles may very well justify this draft position, but the price seems too steep for a number of reasons.
1) Charles is a relatively small back, weighing just around 200 pounds. Although he was able to handle an average of 20 carries over the last eight games of the season, you have to wonder if he is capable of handling a feature back role over 16 games.
2) While Charles has unquestionable big-play ability, remember that almost half of his rushing production was accumulated in just three games last year. In weeks 14 and 15 he tallied a total 297 yards against the questionable Buffalo and Cleveland run defenses. In week 17 abused the Broncos for 259 yards, constituting 23% of his total 2009 rushing output.
All in all, the future looks bright for Jamaal Charles, but he is still a relatively unproven commodity, and could wear down over the course of an entire season if asked to handle 20 plus carries per game. At this point, it's entirely possible that he will end up sharing the backfield with an unspecified player and it's probably best to let another fantasy owner take a chance on him in the early rounds.
Derek of FantasyFootballManiaxs.Com says:
One of the biggest dilemmas for Fantasy Football Owners is trying to decide whether a breakout player was just a flash in the pan or a rising star that gave us a glimpse of great things to come. It happens every year, a player finishes the season with a good five or six-game stretch and is suddenly elevated to first round status.
A RB owners are going to struggle with in 2010 is Kansas City Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles. The second year back had 1,120 yards rushing, 297 yards receiving and eight touchdowns. Even more impressive is that he finished the season with four consecutive 100-yard games, 658 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns. If he can pick up where he left off, he will be worthy of being a top five pick.
There are many positives for Charles. He did not start slow due to ineffective play; he started slow because RB Larry Johnson was stealing the majority of the carries as the starter. In his first seven games, he only had 29 carries, as opposed to 161 carries in his next nine games after Johnson was suspended and later released. Charles will be the starter from day one in 2010, which should help increase his production. He is also going to be working with a new offensive coordinator in Charlie Weis, who has proven to be one of the best play callers in the NFL.
Also encouraging, he had some good games against good rushing defenses last year. The Cincinnati Bengals allowed the seventh fewest points to running backs, but Charles still had 24 carries for 102 yards. San Diego was 17th against running backs and Denver was 18th against running backs. He combined for 408 yards rushing and four touchdowns, including 259 yards and two touchdowns in the season finale against Denver. Those are teams he will play twice next year and with Oakland ranking dead last in points allowed to running backs, he is going to have six games in the division that he could post solid numbers.
Factor in games against Buffalo, St. Louis, Seattle and Cleveland (all teams 25th or worse in points allowed to running backs) and the schedule looks ripe for a second big season. If he were playing in the AFC North against Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincinnati, the outlook would be much different. In the AFC West, the schedule sets up for him to be a star.
I have Charles ranked No. 12 among all running backs and have an open enough mind to bump him up if the Chiefs make some noise in the offseason. He is a very good mid second round pick and would be a steal in the third round. You just want to make sure he is not your No. 1 running back, in case he has a 2009-Slaton type season.
While it is good to have optimism, you also want to be cautious; busts in the first round can come back to kill you. Charles is good enough to pencil in as a guy that you will start in 2010, just not good enough to pencil in as someone that can carry your squad.
Note: This is a synopsis of FF Maniax full profile of Jamaal Charles here.
Rick of FantasyFootballTrader.Com says:
It has absolutely nothing to do with Jamaal Charles but man, I'm loving this article format! Great analysis by my cohorts above. They did such a masterful job outlining his stats from 2009 that I'll just skip to meat and potatoes of it.
I'm smelling the same bloated fantasy value that FF Starters, Lesters Legends and Junkyard Jake touched on above. Though I was nothing short of stunned when I checked Charles' (albeit extremely early) average draft position on over 1,000 mock drafts completed since 1-23-10 over at FF Calculator that he's coming off the board 33rd overall (3.09 in a 12 team format). At that price, Jamaal Charles represents exceptional value.
Unfortunately, my guess is that the early mockers are slower to react than our analysts above and his ADP will climb by leaps and bounds over the offseason. Like Russ Bliss above, I'm looking at Charles tickling 4-digit yardage and double digit touchdowns as a best case scenario. And those numbers won't land him on my squad in many leagues. If you want him, I think you'll need to spend a mid second rounder at least when August rolls around.
Enjoy this article? Check out the offseason Roundtable Archives.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Player Spotlights - Adam Lind and Leo Nunez
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| Adam Lind and Leo Nunez February 11, 2010 |
| Live Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts, Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings, Player Trade Calculator, Fantasy Forums and more ! at FantasyBaseballXtreme.Com |
OF Adam Lind, Blue Jays, The path to notoriety as a reputable power hitter certainly wasn't smooth for Adam Lind, but after three previous tries at the major-league level the young slugger finally settled in and produced an impressive stat line in 2009, finishing with 35 HRs, 114 RBI with a batting average of .305. Lind had always been a standout hitter in the minors, showing good patience at the plate, and ultimately finishing with a very respectable .318 BA, and 55 HRs in 419 minor league games. However, what was most surprising about Lind's terrific season last year, is that he had never shown 35 HR power before. For example, his minor league stats translated into about 22 HRs per season, while his pre-2009 major league numbers suggested 18 HRs over 162 games. If you are going to draft Lind this year, it will likely cost you a 4th round pick, but it may be realistic to expect a slight drop in HR's to the 25-30 level. |
RP Leo Nunez,  Marlins, - Leo Nunez pretty much inherited the Marlin's closer position out of default in 2009, but the results were generally good across the board - 26 saves, an ERA of 4.06, a WHIP of 1.25 and a .230 BAA. This of course is not to say that Nunez can now be considered a reliable closer, as he did have 7 blown saves last year. However, with the ability to throw in the mid-90's with decent control, he is off to a good start. The Marlins unloaded their 2009 opening day closer Matt Lindstrom in the offseason, and although they did recently sign Derrick Turnbow, Nunez enters 2010 as the clear favorite to close games for Florida. The really good news for fantasy purposes is that Nunez seems like one of the better values in drafts this year. He is currently being taken in about the 19th round, right after closers like Matt Capps and Kerry Wood. |
| Player Spotlights By Junkyard Jake JunkyardJake.Com |
Monday, February 8, 2010
Player Spotlights - Mat Latos and Jeff Francoeur
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| Mat Latos and Jeff Francoeur February 8, 2010 |
| Live Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts, Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings, Player Trade Calculator, Fantasy Forums and more ! at FantasyBaseballXtreme.Com |
SP Mat Latos, Padres, Following his call up by the Padres in July 2009, Mat Latos proceeded to notch 4 victories over his first 5 starts, including a one-hitter against the Reds in late July. Over these impressive 5 games Latos had an ERA of 2.43, a WHIP of .95, and was striking out about 7 batters per nine innings. Unfortunately, the 22 right-hander wasn’t able to keep up pace in 2009, ending the season with a 4-5 record and an ERA 4.62, but don’t let this discourage you from taking a chance on this promising young pitcher in this year’s draft. Latos throws with good control, featuring a fastball in the 95 MPH range, and excellent complimentary pitches with good movement. During his time in the minors, Latos showed steady progress, culminating last year, where he finished with a 1.37 ERA, and a WHIP of only .747. Latos is currently going in about the 25th round in fantasy drafts. |
OF Jeff Francoeur,  NY Mets, - After his last couple disappointing seasons with Atlanta, it’s easy to forget Jeff Francoeur’s auspicious rookie season back in 2005, when he hit 14 HRs in only 70 games. He followed up his 2005 rookie debut with a 29 HR campaign in 2006, and although his homeruns dropped to 15 in 2007, he still delivered over 100 RBIs for the Braves that year. In 2008, Francoeur reached the low point of his young career, batting just .239 with 11 HRs in 155 games. Right before the Braves gave up on the once promising power hitter in 2009 and traded him to the Mets, he was lumbering through another mediocre season, with just 5 HRs and a .250 average through 82 games. While he is clearly no sure thing entering 2010, it is encouraging that Francoeur hit .311 with 10 HRs in 75 games with the Mets last year, and seems like a great value in the late rounds of fantasy drafts. |
| Player Spotlights By Junkyard Jake JunkyardJake.Com |
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