Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft - Projected First Round

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Projected First Round with Commentary January 30, 2009 JunkyardJake.Com

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#1 David Wright, NY Mets, 3B
David Wright is certainly not the most popular #1 choice, but the reason we think he is worthy of such lofty status is based on his five category production, his durability and consistency, his surrounding cast and the fact that at just 26, he is entering his prime. These of course should be the primary considerations when picking any player at #1, and it seems that Wright conforms to the formula as well as any player this year.

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#2 Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins, SS
Hanley Ramirez will go #1 in many drafts, and for damn good reason, as he represents that very rare middle infielder that offers 30 HR/50 SB potential. Ramirez is a little light in the RBI department, with 67 last season, and his stolen bases dropped from 51 in 2007 to 35 in 2008, but that's about as critical as you can get about the Marlins offensive sparkplug..

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#3 Jose Reyes, NY Mets, SS
Jose Reyes does not provide the power numbers of Hanley Ramirez, and a fair projection for him is probably around 15, or approximately half of what we might see out of Ramirez. He does represent a more consistent stolen base threat however, and has swiped at least 56 bases over the past four years. So long as he can maintain an average in the .285 to .300 area, he should continue to be an elite fantasy player.

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#4 Alex Rodrigez, NY Yankees, 3B
You obviously have to respect Alex Rodriguez's illustrious career of producing silly numbers since about 1996, but the only caution here is that he showed some signs of slowing down last year as he dropped from 54 HRs and 156 RBIs in 2007, to 35 HRs and 103 RBIs last year.

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#5 Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals, 1B
So much for the elbow injury that was supposed to slow him down last year, as Pujols proceeded to belt 37 HRs to go along with his amazing .357 average. You can't expect more than 5-8 SBs out of Pujols, but assuming that there are no adverse effects from his October elbow surgery, he is a clear top-5 pick in any format.

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#6 Matt Holliday, Oakland A's, OF
This draft spot for Holliday is based on the assumption that he can deliver at a pace commensurate with his production levels over the past three seasons with the Rockies. Of course, Holliday is with the A's now, so he has some risk associated with him, but if you believe that 30 HRs and 25 SBs with a .320 average is still a strong possibiity, this is where he should be drafted.

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#7 Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies, 1B
It would be nice to see Howard get his average back near the .300 mark, but there is no denying his ability to help carry your team in the homerun and RBI categories. He should once again provide about 50 homeruns, with 140-150 RBIs in the Phillies potent lineup, and assuming a modest increase in batting average to about .275, he is a great #7 pick.

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#8 Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians, OF
Although Grady Sizemore's average dropped 9 points to .268 in 2008, he was able to boost his HRs from 24 to 33, and his stolen bases (38), as well as RBIs (90) were career highs. Sizemore's unique fantasy value is based on his power/speed combination, and at 26, he should be entering the peak years of his career.

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#9 Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers, 1B
In his first season with the Tigers Miguel Cabrera started off slow in 2008, hitting only 10 HRs thru June. He managed to turn it up a few notches in the last three months of the season however, hitting .303 with 26 HRs and 79 RBIs over this span, and should make a very safe 1st round pick in 2009 by virtue of his high power, RBI production and batting average potential.

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#10 Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers, 3B
We kindof suspected that Ryan Braun's rookie season was a little too good to be true, afterall, his 34 HRs and 97 RBIs over 113 games in 2007 suggested that he could hit about 48 HRs and 139 RBIs over a full 162 game season. He ended up with 37 HRs and 106 RBIs over 151 games in 2008, so Braun is no mirage. Enhancing his fantasy appeal, Braun also seems to have consistent 15 stolen base potential, so there should be no reservations about snagging him in the 1st round.

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#11 Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers, OF
Well, we finally got to see what Josh Hamilton could over a full season in the majors, and the results were impressive. Of course it took Hamilton long enough to make it out of the minors due to injuries and general indiscretions, and the risk here is that Hamilton is just a shooting star. However, it's hard to believe that any player can hit 32 HRs with 130 RBIs by accident, and remember Hamilton was the #1 overall pick in 1999, so many scouts were expecting Hamilton to already have a couple seasons like 2008 at this point in his career.

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#12 Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies, 2B
Chase Utley can be such an asset to your fantasy team, that he deserves 1st round consideration in any draft. When healthy, he can generally be counted on for 25-30 HRs, around 100 RBIs, a .300 average, and even 10 stolen bases. Of course, we need to be a little cautious about Utley in 2009 as he recovers from offseason hip surgery. but the latest prognosis still calls for the standout second baseman to be ready on Opening Day.

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BrunoBoys.Net 2009 Fantasy Football Mock Draft - Rd. 2

BrunoBoys.Net 2009 Fantasy Football Mock Draft - Rd. 2
A Super Early 10 Round Mock Draft for Certified Fantasy Football Maniacs Only
January 26, 2009  JunkyardJake.Com

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What better time to fire up a 2009 fantasy football mock draft than right before this year's Super Bowl? The writers over at BrunoBoys.Net (which is coincidently one of the coolest fantasy football blogs around, so please check it out) have already gotten the urge to begin speculating on the 2009 season. Here is round two with commentary from the drafting team, and our opinion on each of the picks.


2.01 -Bruno Boys Larry - Larry Fitzgerald - This was actually a very tough pick as there are still some very good running backs available. For many years my rule of thumb was to go RB with my first two picks and it was hard to pass on Frank Gore, Clinton Portis and Brandon Jacobs among others. But in this league we will be starting 3 wide receivers and I felt compelled to get a top flight WR at this point. There will likely be a run on the WR position between now and when I pick again in 20 picks and I don't want to be left without a WR1. This is a mistake I made in one league last year when I had the number 10 pick and the WR postion haunted me all season. Larry Fitzgerald has emerged as the top WR in football in my mind. He scored 210 fantasy points last season on 96 receptions for 1,431 yards and 12 touchdowns. He was very consistent all season scoring in double figures 12 times. There is no reason to believe that Fitz will have a drop off in 2009, although this pick is based on Kurt Warner returning as the Cardinals starting QB in 2009 and I have a hard time believing he won't. With the added depth at RB in this years draft, I feel very comfortable making this pick.

Larry Fitzgerald has certainly staked his claim to the designation as top fantasy receiver for 2009, so the late 1st, early 2nd round looks like the correct place to take him this year. While it is a bit risky to forgo a solid #2 RB in the 2nd round, Fitzgerald averaged 89 yards per game, with a league-leading 12 TDs (tied w/ Calvin Johnson) among wide receivers. Even if the Cardinals are forced to go with Matt Leinart in 2009, Fitzgerald should remain one of the top receivers in the league, especially if Anquan Boldin signs elsewhere.


2.02 -Bruno Boys Cavigs - Frank Gore - With pass first offensive coordinator Mike Martz running the show in San Francisco, Gore had somewhat of a roller coaster season but things should change in 2009. Martz was given the pink slip and new head coach Mike Singletary is committed to playing smash-mouth football that features a heavy dosage of Gore. His 283 touches and 1,409 total yards was his lowest output since his rookie season, but with him in line to get over 300 carries this year, we expect his totals to be comparable to 2006 when he had 2,180 total yards. Bottom Line, if you can snag him in the second round (because of a sub-par 2008 showing) consider yourself lucky.

Gore ran for a respectable 1,036 yards in 2008, in fact, this was not much of a drop-off from 2007, when he ran for 1,102. Certainly Martz is a bit of a nutball, and didn’t do a very good job with the Niners offense, but he was only part of the problem last season. More touches under Singletary seem likely for Gore, but let’s also hope that San Francisco can create more of a passing game in 2009 to help open things up in the running game.


2.03 -Fighting Chance Fantasy - Marion Barber - Really just wanted the opportunity to write Marion the Barbarian. Barber runs like he is mad at the world and refuses to ever take the easy way out of bounds and you have to admire him for that. He also has always had a nose for the endzone. Although he has some company in the backfield in what will be second year man Felix Jones, Barber is still the main man in Dallas, and isn't a bad pass receiver as well. Fantasy football is won and lost with TDs, and you can count on 10+ out of Barber.

Marion Barber dropped off significantly down the stretch in 2008, but this was likely the result of his toe injury. It might also be noted that Dallas and Barber had the misfortune of facing the absolute most run defenses in the league over the final 4 weeks of the season - Pittsburgh, NY Giants, Baltimore and Philadelphia. When healthy, Barber should be the main running threat for Dallas, with Felix Jones mixed in for about 5-10 carries per game, Assuming the Cowboys can shake off their late season 2008 collapse and are granted a slightly more favorable schedule, Barber is certainly worth the risk in the 2nd round.


2.04 -Bruno Boys Cory - Marshawn Lynch - I struggled with this pick between Marshawn Lynch, Brandon Jacobs and Chris Johnson. Ultimately, I felt too many points would be poached from Jacobs and Johnson, and injuries to Jacobs also scared me off. Lynch is the clear-cut No. 1 back in Buffalo and though the offense struggled at times this year I see the Bills getting better. Lynch has the ability to go for 1,500 yards and 15 total touchdowns and that's the kind of production I like out of a second round pick.


Marshawn Lynch is probably a safer pick in comparison to Jacobs and Chris Johnson because of his relative durability and consistent carries, and he is a terrific choice in the 2nd round. While the 3rd year back certainly has the talent to improve on the 1,047 rush yards and 8 TDs, his chances of doing this will be contingent on the Buffalo Bills ability to create a more potent offense in 2009. While Lynch pretty much accomplished the same rushing production that he did in 2007, one area that he did improve was in terms of receptions, where he boosted his total from 18 to 47.


2.05 -Bruno Boys Ziza - Clinton Portis - Having grabbed Steven Jackson with my first pick I am in need of a RB that isn't much of an injury concern that can also rack up the points. Happily I noticed that one of my initial possible picks were still on the board in Clinton Portis. He has played 16 games in three of the last four years and is a yardage stud. He also is good for near double digit TD's on a yearly basis. If it weren't for his bickering and dissatisfaction with the coaching staff, Portis most likely would have gone higher. His slide has locked me in to two RB's, Jackson and Portis, who both have top-5 talent. Sure, there is some risk involved, but if all goes well, this will be an awesome 1-2 punch at the RB position.

After missing the last 7 games of 2006, Clinton Portis hasn’t missed a game over the past 2 years, and his productivity received a boost under Jim Zorn, as he went for 342 carries, 1,487 yards and 4.3 yards per carry in 2008, compared with 325/1,262/3.9 in 2007. Portis is a very solid pick in the 2nd round, and he is likely to go in the late 1st round in most 2009 fantasy drafts.


2.06 -Bruno Boys Whooley - Andre Johnson - The "two-running back theory" is a solid theory, but it is merely a theory. There are so many factors that will determine your second round pick that it's foolish to blindly follow it. With so many running backs already taken, rather than end up with a second tier back, I've decided to nab one of the league's top wide receivers in Andre Johnson. Finishing second among wide outs last season in fantasy points, Johnson put up a more than healthy 197 fantasy points, a total that allowed him to reach double digits 11 times. It's going to be nice having that type of production out of my wide receiver position.

Andre Johnson is a great pick in this spot, he is just entering his prime, and has the ability to be one of the most dominant receivers in the league. If Matt Schaub can put together a full season, and the Texans can find an additional legitimate secondary receiver to go along with Walter and Daniels, Johnson could easily finish with the best receiving numbers in the league.


2.07 -Fantasy Football Librarian - Chris Johnson - This was a tough one. I almost went with a WR since there are 3 starting receivers in this league but I can't deny what a great deal Chris Johnson is at this point - plus I feel confident that there will still be solid WRs available when the draft comes back around to me in round 3. I don't fear LenDale White poaching too many yards or TDs from Johnson and think we'll get another heavy dose of Chris Johnson's explosiveness in 2009.

What a terrific rookie season Chris Johnson had, and there is no reason to believe it was a fluke. When Johnson entered the NFL, everyone knew about his speed, vision and great hands, but he also showed maturity, intelligence, plus surprisingly decent power to run inside, despite weighing only about 200 pounds.


2.08 -Fantasy Pros 911 - Brandon Jacobs - New York Giants running back Brandon Jacobs missed three games and still finished the season with 1,089 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on 219 carries. You can imagine what his numbers would've looked like had he played in those three games. However, between a good receiving corps as well as backup running backs Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw, Jacobs likely will receive less than 250 carries next season. Still, he is one of the best goal-line RB's in the NFL and should have no problem exceeding his 2008 totals in 2009.

Since claiming the starting position for the Giants, Brandon Jacobs has missed 8 games over the past two years, so there is some concern about his durability, but the late 2nd round is a great spot to take him, and he makes a top-notch #2 fantasy running back. It will be interesting to see if free agent Derrick Ward opts to sign elsewhere for 2009. In the event that Ward does leave the Giants, Jacobs value should get a boost, and Ahmad Bradshaw becomes an intriguing sleeper.


2.09 -Fantasy Football Xtreme - Joseph Addai - The Colts runner had a rough 2008 season, rushing for just 544 yards on 12 games. While he did manage to score seven times, Addai was an absolute bust in '08 given he was a top five overall pick in most formats. What should fantasy owners expect out of Addai in 2009? Well, while I don't think it's smart to count on first-round numbers out of Addai in 2009, but he is certainly capable of it. The Colts struggled a ton early on in the 2008 NFL season, and Addai was hampered by injuries for much of the '08 season, but I think Addai and the Colts will get off to a hot start come September. If Addai's ADP stays in the middle-to-late second-round range as we near August drafts, get ready to snag him without hesitation. Addai could be the biggest steal in 2009 fantasy drafts!

Joseph Addai pretty much fell off the map in 2008, but he should indeed represent a nice value if you can get him in the late 2nd- early 3rd round of your fantasy draft in 2009. He is still just 26 years old, and had only missed 1 game over the 2006, 2007 seasons, so it’s unfair to classify him as an injury risk. There is no reason to believe that Addai will not return to at least 1,000 yards and 8 TDs in 2009, and he has the talent to exceed those numbers.


2.10 -Junkyard Jake - Ronnie Brown - I really wanted Joseph Addai here (nice pick Smitty!), but Ronnie Brown isn't a bad consolation pick. The Miami Dolphins far exceeded expectations in 2008, and it's clear that the new regime has placed them back on a path to respectability. The offensive line is still shaky, but adding rookie Jake Long last year was a step in the right direction. All in all, Brown had a productive 2008 while sharing time with Ricky Williams, finishing with 910 rush yards, 10 TDs and 33 catches for 254 yards. No doubt Ricky Williams looked pretty good in his return from refeer/drug suspension hiatus, but Ronnie Brown, now two years removed from reconstructive knee surgery, should become the clear feature back for Miami in 2009.

Ronnie Brown’s touchdown numbers in 2008 were somewhat padded by his 4 TD performance against New England in week 3, but all in all, Brown pretty much performed according to expectations in his return from the ACL injury he sustained in 2007. Now entering his 5th year, and the 2nd year of the new Miami coaching staff, Ronnie Brown could represent one of the best values at the runningback position in the late 2nd- early 3rd rounds of 2009 drafts.

BrunoBoys.Net 2009 Fantasy Football Mock Draft - Rd. 1

BrunoBoys.Net 2009 Fantasy Football Mock Draft - Rd. 1
A Super Early 10 Round Mock Draft for Certified Fantasy Football Maniacs Only
January 22, 2009  JunkyardJake.Com

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What better time to fire up a 2009 fantasy football mock draft than right before this year's Super Bowl? The writers over at BrunoBoys.Net (which is coincidently one of the coolest fantasy football blogs around, so please check it out) have already gotten the urge to begin speculating on the 2009 season. As such, they have decided to round up a group of certified fantasy football maniacs for a mock draft. Round one with commentary appears below.


1.01 -Junkyard Jake - Adrian Peterson - Unlike in 2008, where the #1 pick was seemingly a toss-up between Peterson and Tomlinson, in 2009 Peterson may very well be the safest player to take at the #1 spot. Although Peterson's 10 TDs were disappointing, he contributed a very consistent 110 yards per game, exceeding the century mark for rushing yards in 10 of 16 games played.

We loved him at #1 last year too, that was easy!


1.02 -Fantasy Football Xtreme - Michael Turner - Michael Turner rushed for 1,699 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2008 - He averaged 4.5 yards a pop and dropped eight 100-yard outings. -- That's a better fantasy campaign than even I expected, and Turner was my number one breakout candidate heading into that 2008 fantasy season. The only downside with Turner is that he carried the football 377 times in '08, but last season was his first NFL season with more than 80 carries -- He will be fine in 2009! Only Steven Jackson deserves consideration over Turner, but in the end this is an easy call for me.

Can't argue with Turner at the #2 spot, as Atlanta is a team on the rise, and very much committed to the run. The only concern here is Turner's somewhat bipolar performance in 2008. For example, he did destroy some bad defense with huge games, but also note that he tallied 70 yards or less in 6 games.


1.03 -FantasyPros911.com - LaDainian Tomlinson - I could have went with a safe pick like DeAngelo Williams or Brian Westbrook, but I have a gut feeling that LaDainian Tomlinson will be back in 2009. Even though we'll see him drop out of the first overall pick in 2009, and some may say he disappointed in 2008, he was still the sixth ranked running back with 212 fantasy points. Tomlinson's backup, Darren Sproles is a free-agent, and at this point I think he'll jump ship, similar to what Michael Turner did a year ago. That being said, I'm looking for a revitalized LT in 2009 and see him finishing as a one of the top three running backs at season end.

Tomlinson was no doubt a big disappointment last year, but he played through injuries, and it's hard to argue with such an early choice given his big upside. Still, you have to wonder how strongly the Chargers will be committed to the soon-to-be 30 year old RB in 2009, and his 28 TD, 1,815 rush yard season in 2006 seems like a very distant memory.


1.04 -Fantasy Football Librarian - DeAngelo Williams - After a slow start to the 2008 season, Williams closed out the season with a strong showing and finished as the top back with 1,518 rushing yards and 18 rushing TDs (plus a decent 22 receptions and 2 rec TDs) despite the presence of Jonathan Stewart. I predict that Williams will continue to thrive under a system of shared carries with Stewart and will repeat some of his multi-TD games in 2009, making him another unstoppable beast next season. Sure, he needs to continue to put up those big TD numbers in order to remain a top back, but I'm willing to risk that he's more than likely to impress again. I was tempted to go with Forte or Westbrook here but think Williams might be the better bet for the important trio of staying strong all season, remaining injury free and putting up big numbers.

Williams was indeed a 'beast' this past season, and he will probably be slightly overrated heading into 2009. While he has proven himself to be a legitimate fantasy RB, Jonathan Stewart. who had some injury problems in 2008, is too good to be a 2nd string player, and remains a serious threat to playing time.


1.05 -Bruno Boys Whooley - Matt Forte - If you want consistency for your 2009 season, look no further than Chicago Bears' running back, Matt Forte. In a stellar rookie campaign, Forte amassed double digit fantasy points in all but 3 games, and in those three games, he didn't miss by much going for 7, 8, and 9 fantasy points. He'll continue to be a focal point of the Bears' offense and should hover around 20-25 carries throughout the year. This consistent back should have no problem avoiding the sophomore slump.

Forte certainly was a very pleasant surprise in 2008, and it looks like the Bears have found a very reliable workhorse to lead their rushing game in 2009. One big benefit associated with Forte should continue to be his steady touches per game. This past season, he carried the ball 20 or more times in 11 games, and also pitched in about 4 catches per game.


1.06 -Bruno Boys Ziza - Steven Jackson - Sitting in the middle of the first round, one is succumbed to two real facts. A) The best running backs are off of the board. B) It is way too early to draft another position. I am one that truly believes that a championship is built through the running back position, especially in leagues that reward quarterbacks 4 points for a passing TD and wide receivers are not rewarded points per reception. That leaves a solid amount of running backs to chose from, but none that are clearly better than the other. At this point I am thinking Brandon Jacobs, Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook and Clinton Portis. All of them have their question marks, but it is Jackson that tempts me. He will be only 26 next year, has a new coaching regime that believes in solid defense and a run-first philosophy, was a yardage machine before missing 4 games in each of the last two years and if stretched over a 16 game season, he would of totaled just short of 1,700 total yards while getting 8 TD's in 2007 and just short of 1,900 total yards while visiting pay dirt almost 11 TD's this past season. Those number would have been for 256 points. At this point, I feel it is a gamble that could pay off very handsomely.

Stephen Jackson at the 6th spot might be the best the value of the 1st round. As mentioned, he is only 26, his talent is undeniable, and so long as he can stay healthy in 2009, he will be the centerpiece of the Rams offensive attack.


1.07 -Bruno Boys Cory - Drew Brees - Well it was so hard to pass up a running back in the first round but my main concern is points. At this point I feel like I can still get two decent RBs later while getting the top QB on the board. Maybe he won't throw for more than 5,000 yards next year but I can't imagine his point totals dropping too much, especially with everybody expected to be healthy next season. I like the emergence of Lance Moore as a WR2 and Pierre Thomas as an heir to RB2 to Deuce McAllister. I wouldn't mind seeing the line improved a bit but overall I feel comfortable taking the top QB with the seventh pick, especially considering I couldn't settle on a RB I liked enough at this spot.

It's always a risk when you choose to pick a quarterback in the 1st round, but given that all the obvious RB choices have been taken with the 1st six picks, Brees makes sense here. Coming off a career season with 34 TDs and over 5,000 yards, and working in a pass-heavy offense, Brees looks like he might be a popular early round selection in 2009.


1.08 -Fighting Chance Fantasy - Brian Westbrook - I bash this guy all the time for his ability to stay healthy, I even gave him the nickname Brian "Game Time Decision" Westbrook, but I just couldn't pass him up here. Even with missing two games he still had 14 touchdowns and had over 1,300 all purpose yards. If he is able to stay healthy, a monumental "if", you could easily see a return to 2007 numbers and I have a huge steal on my hands. He will always be the focus of that offense, and as he goes, Philly goes. I REALLY almost went with Peyton here, but there are plenty of quarterbacks that I like.

Westbrook deserves to go in the 1st round, but probably carries an extra measure of risk in 2009. He will turn 30 next season, so that won't help his vulnerability to the type of nagging injuries he is famous for. Also of concern is Westbrook's dropoff in yards per carry from 5.1 in 2006 to 4.8 in 2007 to 4 in 2008.


1.09 -Bruno Boys Cavigs - Maurice Jones-Drew - Jones-Drew finished 2008 with a bang, as the third year running back had 10+ fantasy points in seven of his last 9 games. With running back Fred Taylor expected to leave town the Jaguars are making a commitment to Jones-Drew as the primary ball carrier. His 197 carries this year was a career high and with no RBBC in 2009 he should be able to approach 250 carries. Plus, Jones-Drew is arguably the best pass catching RB in the NFL, finishing with 62 receptions on the season. Expect those number to continue and the added rushing totals to propel Jones-Drew into a reliable RB1. I also considered Steve Slaton, Brandon Jacobs, Clinton Portis and Frank Gore but Jones-Drew grades out the best heading into 2009.

This is a solid and gutsy pick that will no doubt pay off if Fred Taylor is out of the picture for Jacksonville in 2009. Jones-Drew has already been the goalline back for the Jaguars, and was clearly the superior RB in Jacksonville this past season. Of course, the Jags will need to fix their offensive line problems, but the situation was so bad in that regard, it can only improve in 2009.


1.10 -Bruno Boys Larry - Steve Slaton - Slaton was not a first rounder in 2008, as a matter of fact he was a late round pick and even went undrafted in many leagues. As a rookie he caught many fantasy owners by surprise. He could not have been drafted into a better situation as the Texans did not head into the season with a clear cut number one RB. Ahman Green was slated to be the teams starter, but as usual injuries were an issue. Slaton was given a chance in Week 3 of the season and he did not disappoint. He went on to carry the ball 268 times for 1,282 yards with 9 touchdowns. Slaton also added 50 receptions for 377 yards with 1 touchdown. The Texans managed to get Slaton 20 plus touches a game 9 times in 2008 and that number should grow in 2009. He is a game breaker and I am ecstatic to land him with the number 10 pick.

It's surprising to see Slaton go so early in this mock draft, but considering that the rookie provided the Texans with their first legitmate rushing threat since Domanick Davis, he looks like a keeper. His 1,282 rush yards were certainly impressive, but even more impressive was his consistency. Really he only had one bad game (vs. Baltimore- 4 carries for 7 yards), and he proved he could compete against some tough defenses (26 for 120 against Green Bay, 24 for 100 against Tennessee late in the season).