Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Fantasy Football Sleepers/Creepers -9/22


Fantasy Football Sleepers/Creepers
Our thoughts on some possible undervalued and overvalued players...

Updated September 22, 2009  JunkyardJake.Com




Pierre Thomas ,RB

-A fantasy outcast just one short week ago, Pierre Thomas will likely find himself thrust back into significant playing time as a result of Mike Bell's untimely knee injury. It's easy to have a short memory concerning Thomas, since he was sucked into the injury nebulous over the first couple weeks, but remember, he was the guy who effectively replaced Reggie Bush down the stretch last season, with 909 total yards and 9 TDs, mostly accumulated after week 11. Thomas has had a few weeks to recover from his own knee injury, and was ready to go in week 2, so he makes a decent guy to pickup for RB help if someone hastily dropped him in your league.


Donald Brown ,RB

-There is no doubt that the Miami defense had something to do with it, but Joseph Addai gave his 2009 fantasy owners some unpleasant flashbacks from 2008 when he stumbled along to a 6 carry/32 yard performance this Monday night. Meanwhile, Donald Brown gave a glimpse of his potential with a 6.5 YPC, a 24 yard catch and 1 TD in his role as Addai's #2. Even if Addai remains the starter, Brown should absolutely not be left on your waiver wire, and Addai owners may want to mobilize some trade offers.


Torry Holt/Mike Sims-Walker ,WR

-If you can't help yawning at the thought of picking up Torry Holt, you are not alone, there is really nothing exciting about a 33 year-old receiver in a dysfunctional passing offense. However, Holt is still a savvy player and he represents the #1 option for Jacksonville, evidenced by the fact that David Garrard looked his way 11 times this past week. Mike Sims-Walker is a more interesting, albeit risky prospect, with good size, great hands, decent speed, and solid instincts. Sims-Walker gets his chance as Jacksonvilles #2 wideout now that Troy Williamson is out for the season.


Laurent Robinson ,WR

-It must be a lonely job as the only guy trying to help the Rams move the ball down the field in their passing game, but Laurent Robinson is that guy so far. At 6-2 Robinson has good size, shows decent burst, and seems to have improved his route-running compared to his first couple seasons in the league. We'll see if he can keep it up, but so far he is the Rams #1 receiver with 21 targets, including 4 redzone opportunities.


Justin Forsett ,RB

-Justin Forsett is quietly becoming a factor in the Seattle offense - this week he finished with 35 rushing yards on 5 carries along with 6 catches for 57 yards. Although Edgerrin James is technically the primary backup to Julius Jones, it may turn out that Forsett retains the most value. Unfortunately, you can't teach size, and Forsett's 5-8, 190 lb stature will almost certainly preclude him from being a lead back in the NFL, but he is definitely worth picking up as a contingency plan for Julius Jones, or even a possible flex option.








Donnie Avery ,WR

-It's way too early to give up on Avery, but there were doubts about the 2nd year receiver being able to handle a #1 receiver role given his smallish stature, and those doubts may be materializing a bit. In fact, word is that teammates voted him 'Most likely Player to be Adversely Affected by a Strong Gust of Wind', and at 185 lbs, he is very susceptible to getting mugged at the line by larger cornerbacks. He probably has nearly no trade value, but Avery is absolutely not startable right now.


Earl Bennett ,WR

-In just one week, Earl Bennett went from potential centerpiece of the Bears passing game with 16 targets, to the receiver who was sent to the bench and then convincingly outplayed by a rookie. Truth is, rookie Johnny Knox has no business making a consistent impact this year, but he does have better speed and big-play ability compared to Earl Bennett. Nonetheless, both players should probably be bansihed from starting lineups until Jay Cutler figures out who he wants to throw to.


Ray Rice ,RB

-One of the darlings of this years preseason hype machine, Ray Rice is so far turning out to be the complementary player in the Ravens running game that is consistent with his diminutive physique and unique passing down skills. So far, Rices' alleged backup Willis McGahee has received 25 carries to Rice's 28, thier yardage is almost identical, and McGahee has the clear TD advantage, 4 to zero. It certainly would not be unreasonable to contemplate trading Rice if you can upgrade another position on your fantasy team.


Brandon Marshall ,WR

-Aside from trying to prove he was more eccentric than Michael Crabtree, Marshall didn't accomplish much over the offseason, and his underachievement has so far carried over into the regular season. The new Broncos passing offense clearly does not rely on a featured pair of wideouts, so there is a fairly good chance that Marshall won't be a 1,200 yard guy this year. He does however represent decent trade bait if another owner in your league is seeking another flaky, overrated receiver to pair up with Terrell Owens on their roster.


Joey Galloway ,WR

-Given that the Jets bottled up Randy Moss pretty well, and Wes Welker was apparently abducted by aliens 2 minutes before gametime, Joey Galloway was Tom Brady's most popular target this past week, with 13 looks. Unfortunately, that seemed to be more than the 38 year-old receiver could handle at this point in his career, as he ended the day with only 5 catches for 53 yards. When Welker returns, Galloway can go back to planning his retirement fishing trips.


Thursday, September 17, 2009

Fantasy Football Sleepers/Creepers -9/17


Fantasy Football Sleepers/Creepers
Our thoughts on some possible undervalued and overvalued players...

Updated September 17, 2009  JunkyardJake.Com




Carnell Williams/Derrick Ward ,RB

-It's nice to see Carnell Williams emerge from seclusion to show that he can still gain positive yardage, everyone definitely had doubts after his two consecutive 200 yard seasons. Williams and Derrick Ward received almost equal carries this week, and although Williams outgained Ward 97 to 62 in yards, Derrick Ward seemed to be the preferred guy in the redzone (4 attempts).


Chris Wells ,RB

-The 49ers focused on stopping Fitzgerald and Boldin, so Tim Hightower received a silly amount of looks in the passing game this week with 14 targets and 12 catches. Unfortunately, Hightower once again couldn't do much with his carries, gaining only 15 yards on 8 attempts. Chris Wells made his league debut with 7 carries and 29 yards, giving him a 4.14 YPC and potentially demonstrating why he could represent a more effective rushing option over Tim Hightower.


Steve Smith/Mario Manningham ,WR

-Eli Manning has to be the most unexciting multi-millionaire quarterback in the league, but he still knows how to find his open receivers, and Plaxico Burress as we know won't be one of them this year. Steve Smith should emerge as Mannings favorite possession receiver, and was targeted 8 times this week, while Manningham offers more upside by virtue of his speed and elusiveness. Super Mario was on the receiving end of the Giants longest pass play, a 30 yarder, and also caught Mannings lone TD toss.


Willis McGahee ,RB

-Going into week 1, McGahee had been relegated to an underappreciated afterthought given that Ray Rice had overtaken him on the depth chart. Rice did fine with 19 carries for 108 yards against the Chiefs, but McGahee turned out to be the better fantasy option, with 87 total yards, 5 redzone carries and 2 TDs.


Devery Henderson/Robert Meachem ,WR

-They probably should have stopped the New Orleans/Detroit game after the 2nd quarter, as Drew Brees was putting on a precision passing clinic and clearly was not going to be stopped. Brees ended up throwing only 34 times, but typically averaged about 40 attempts last year. With all the balls that will probably be flying around this season for the Saints, it's not inconceivable that Henderson and Meachem turn out to be worth using every week.


Earl Bennett ,WR

-Maybe it was because Greg Olsen was being smothered, or maybe it's some form of nepotism, but Jay Cutler's former college teammate Earl Bennett was targeted a surprising 16 times this week. He ended up with only 7 catches for 66 yards, but if the target trend continues, Bennett can't help being fantasy-relevant this year.


Pierre Garcon/Austin Collie ,WR

-Last seen crumbling to the ground with noone within 10 feet of him, Anthony Gonzalez was apparently assaulted by a phanthom defender this week. The Colts may attempt to sign a veteran wideout, but they are probably better off going with the combination of Garcon and Collie. Although just a rookie, Collie might be the better route-runner, while Garcon should be effective on deep routes.








Shaun Hill/Isaac Bruce ,QB/WR

-Arizona wouldn't allow it, but the 49ers really wanted to run this week, and who could blame them, because their passing game looks like a badly cheorographed production of 'We Suck-The Musical'. Vernon Davis did receive an encouraging 8 targets this week, so there is a glimmer of hope, but Isaac Bruce is clearly not a receiver who can be featured any longer.


Earnest Graham ,RB

-What happened to that potentially-potent three runningback alliance between Carnell Williams, Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham? Graham was the distinct outcast this week against Dallas, receiving only 1 carry. This week bears watching, but Graham could be the odd man out if the Carnell Williams resurgence is for real.


Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush ,RB

-Mike Bell was used early and often this week, compiling 144 yards on 28 carries. Although it was against the cooperative Detriot lions run defense, if he keeps that kind of performance up, Pierre Thomas might have an additional backfield partner to contend with, and Reggie Bush might only see the field in obvious passing situations.


Laveranues Coles ,WR

-It may not be time to hit the panic button just yet on Coles, but just 5 targets resulting in 1 measley catch for 11 insignificant yards is disappointing to say the least. Also consider that Andre Caldwell was targeted 8 times, and Chad Ochocinco is at least temporarily laying off his crazy pills.


Marc Bulger ,QB

-If Bulger can only throw for 191 yards against the philanthropic Seattle Seahawks secondary it really won't matter how easy his schedule is. Unless your other options are Bryon Leftwich and/or Jake Delhomme, it's hard to see a situation where you would want to use Bulger right now until he starts playing with just a smidge of inspiration.


Saturday, August 15, 2009

Fantasy Football Sleepers/Creepers 8/15


Fantasy Football Sleepers/Creepers
Our thoughts on some possible undervalued and overvalued players...

Updated August 15, 2009  JunkyardJake.Com


Julius Jones ,RB

Right before the Seattle’s bye week last year, Julius Jones had put together two consecutive solid games, rushing for 127 yards and 1 TD vs SF, and then 140 yards and a TD vs. the Rams. Unfortunately, if you didn’t spend the next two weeks frantically attempting to sell high on the enigmatic Mr. Jones, you absorbed a crash and burn situation that rivaled the relentless downward spiral of Citibank’s common stock.

Jones closed out the year with 698 yards and 2 TDs, accumulating only 386 yards from October thru December, but he was especially useless in December, recording just 6 carries for 24 yards as Maurice Morris assumed the starting job. .

So why bother with this hapless Seattle slacker ? Well, for one thing, pesky Maurice Morris is now in Detroit, and the #2 Seattle RB is the plodding and generally unimpressive TJ Duckett. Secondly, the new offensive coordinator Greg Knapp has a flair for generating an effective rushing attack, as demonstrated by his work with the Falcons, 49ers and Raiders in previous years. Jones is currently being selected in the 8th-9th rounds of fantasy drafts, but could be a pleasant surprise this year.


Nate Washington ,WR

It seems like forever since the Titans have actually had a wide receiver who represented any kind of legitimate deep threat. In fact, you may need to go all the way back to 1998, when they signed Yancey Thigpen and then derailed his career by attempting to integrate him into their tediously boring offense.

In 2009, the Titans passing offense will most likely remain monotonously unexciting, but at least they will have Nate Washington to stretch the field when they are feeling slightly froggy. Washington can be found as late as the 15th round in fantasy drafts this year, and should be a good bet to surpass the dawdling Justin Gage as the Titans leading wideout.


Willis McGahee ,RB

If you selected McGahee in a 2008 fantasy draft, it was clearly a wasted 1st-2nd round pick that may have helped sabotage your season. As a consequence, it’s perfectly okay to harbor ill-feelings toward the veteran RB. In fact, if you find it therapeutic, feel free to make up you own disdainful nicknames for McGahee.

However, after you run around referring to McGahee as Willis McWashout and Fritter McLollygagger, or even SillyPutty McSuckinstein, and the resentment is cathartically removed from your system, it could be time to give the Ravens RB a second look.

Currently, Ray Rice is the popular choice to assume the primary ballcarrier duties in Baltimore, but this notion could have some flaws. For one thing, Rice is a fine RB, but lacks the size to be a workhorse, and despite his smaller frame, he is not especially fast or elusive. Meanwhile, McGahee has looked solid in camp so far and is comparatively better-suited for frequent carries, when healthy.

While Ray Rice is going in the 7th round, McGahee can be acquired at a more reasonable 10th round spot, and could turn out to be a great value.


Robert Meachem ,WR

Robert Meachem is a gifted young receiver who enters his 3rd season, and is now officially running out of excuses. After his selection in the 1st round of the 2007 draft, his rookie season was marred by injury. In his second year, he was relatively healthy, but the Saints were somehow unimpressed with how he used his athleticism to gracefully run to the wrong places on the field.

Entering his 3rd year, the Saints are encouraged by his progress so far, and it appears that Meachem could be on the verge of grasping the concept of proper route running. The former 1st round selection is arguably the Saints receiver with the biggest upside from a talent perspective, and could be a steal in the 15th round of your fantasy draft.


Laurence Maroney ,RB

Bill Belichick takes great pride in making the Patriots backfield one of the most ambiguous situations in professional sports, and his RB rotation is truly one of the great achievements in 20th century bureaucracy, because it somehow works.

While it’s probably best to steer clear of the entire mess, it’s just difficult to dismiss the notion that Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor and/or Kevin Faulk appear to be significantly inferior options to a healthy and motivated Laurence Maroney.

That said, some of you would rather chaperone an unruly group of elementary school children at the premiere of ‘Lawrence of Arabia – The Musical’ than draft Laurence Maroney this year. This is perfectly understandable, but it really seems that Maroney is worth a speculative pick in his current 12th round draft position.







Bryant Johnson ,WR

The fantasy football world has seemingly been waiting forever for Bryant Johnson to accomplish something notable, but it could be time to just resign ourselves to the fact that it’s not going to happen.

On the bright side, as opposed to last year when he was an alleged starter in the erratic 49er offense, he does look a little better this season as the likely #2 receiver playing opposite Calvin Johnson.

Even so, his upside is probably capped at around 50 catches for 600-700 yards and maybe 5 TDs, and that’s if the potentially more talented rookie Derrick Williams doesn’t decide to start assimilating to his new pro career to usurp the underwhelming Johnson.


Cedric Benson ,RB

Despite his modest resurgence last season, it may be best to temper expectations for Cedric Benson. He did finish the year strong with 282 yards against the Browns and the Chiefs, but those run defenses probably should have been classified as charitable organizations under US tax code in 2008.

On the upside, the Bengals seem to have enough confidence in Benson, that they felt they had the luxury of cutting Kenny Watson, but Benson could very well lose time to rookie project Bernard Scott and/or free agent signee Brian Leonard. Scott is a smallish, but instinctive, quick and elusive option for the Bengals who is showing promise so far, and despite Leonard’s fullback job description, he offers the same speed and power as Cedric Benson.

Lastly, and this may amount to nothing significant, but it’s hard to ignore Benson’s offseason rationale for possibly signing with the Texans. To paraphrase, Benson essentially said ‘I have no problem with signing with a club as a backup runningback in the right situation’ Really Cedric? That’s the way to articulate your competitive disposition and vocational commitment. Isn’t this kind of like hearing your postman say ‘It’s my professional pledge to you, that more often than not, I’ll be able to deliver most of your mail’, or hearing your building contractor say ‘Yeah, we are not too bad with foundation, framing and plumbing stuff, but you might get an electrical fire when you turn on the lights’.


Joe Flacco/Derrick Mason/Mark Clayton ,QB/WR

It’s really tempting to draft Joe Flacco this year. However, while the Ravens 2nd year QB is clearly one of the most talented young passers in the league, it’s getting more difficult to identify who exactly he will be throwing to this year.

Derrick Mason returning is a plus, but we have probably seen the best out of this particular 35 year-old receiver, and waffling around on his retirement decision does not inspire a great deal of confidence.

At the #2 receiver spot, the only thing consistent about Mark Clayton is that 1) he will probably be injured the week you need him and/or 2) the week he fools you into putting him into your lineup, he’ll get you 2 catches for 19 yards.

To round out the Ravens motley brigade of questionable receivers, there is Demetrius Williams, whose hype always seems to exceed his relevance, followed by Kelley Washington, Justin Harper and then some guy named ‘Ernie Wheelwright’. Ernie Wheelwright is likely on the roster only because the M&T Bank Stadium announcer gets a chuckle when he gets to say his name twice a season.


L.J. Smith/Todd Heap ,TE

While we are picking on the Ravens, what better way to ensure the continued irrelevance of a couple aging tight-ends, then by putting them on the same team together? Now, whatever limited productivity we may have expected from Todd Heap and/or LJ Smith this year, divide by two. A perfect scenario of subtraction by addition, it’s almost too awesome!

Over the past 2 years, LJ Smith and Todd Heap have exhibited roughly the same career trajectory, a 45 degree downslope. Smith seemed to peak in 2005 at 61 catches and 682 yards. Heap also had his best season three years ago, with 75 catches, 855 yards and 7 TDs. Over the past two years, both these guys have settled into the vapid 35 catch, 300 range associated with backup fantasy tightends.

Another potential reason to steer clear of these guys is that given their recent injury histories, they could possibly account for more collective downtime than the pork rind vending machine at the Baghdad International Airport.


Reggie Bush ,RB

A once heralded 1st round draft pick, whose speed and agility was supposed to leave defenders helplessly grasping at a trail of rocket fumes, Reggie Bush enters his 4th season as just an above-average runningback option in PPR leagues with an injury risk cloud still hovering over him.

Assuming that he is actually recovered from the microfracture surgery on his left knee performed this past December, Bush should remain a useful #3 or #4 RB option, but there have been some minor setbacks this preseason, where he has been held out for ‘precautionary’ reasons.

Reggie Bush is currently being selected in the 4th round, but Pierre Thomas, the 2007 undrafted free agent who outplayed him last season, figures to assume a larger role in 2009. As such, Bush seems like a risky proposition to spend a 4th round pick on, especially if his name increasingly becomes synonymous with ‘soreness and swelling’.